Thankyou for opening your Tesla Folder, Welcome I am the Tesla folder! I hope you’ve had an amazing 2021 despite all the hardships, and hope 2022 will be a wonderful year for you and your family!

So 2021 Is about to end and Tesla is expected to produce 900k vehicles, nearly double the 500k they produced last year, all that without even building a new factory! So it is safe to say that 2022 is looking like a fantastic year for Tesla and truly going to be an inflection point where Tesla’s growth will reach phenomenal levels to the point where Tesla will be producing 1.5 million vehicles by the end of next year, a year in which Tesla will emerge as the clear and dominant leader in the electric vehicle market. People outside of the Tesla community do not understand what a big deal Giga Texas and Giga Berlin are for the auto industry and next year is going to shock these people.

Thankyou for opening your Tesla Folder, Welcome I am your Tesla folder and today we will be looking at 7! Major predictions for Tesla and Tesla stock in 2022, let us start with the first major point to talk about for 2022. The Tesla Semi:

1. The Tesla Semi Truck Starts Production

Most people seem to love the Cybertruck over everything else but the Semi is perhaps the product I am most excited about. The Trucking industry accounts for about 25% of the CO2 emissions on European roads, and thus it is absolutely essential we swap these for electric vehicles as soon as possible if we want to stop the earth from warming at the alarming rate that it is. Currently the Semi truck has not launched largely due to battery supply constraints but this is about to change with recent news showing that Tesla is expected to deliver their first group of Tesla Semi’s to Pepsi during 2022. The first 15 Tesla semi’s that are produced will be sent to Pepsi early next year. Tesla is already in the process of preparing for their arrival by installing Tesla Semi Mega Chargers at their Giga Nevada, whilst Pepsi is doing the same at their own HQ. In September, Pepsi CEO Ramon LaGuardia talked about the Tesla deliveries during an interview with CNBC:

Really exciting stuff, so perhaps we will even see on the Q4 earnings call in January an update on the Pepsi Deliveries. This Pepsi deal will be the first Testing phase for the Tesla Semi’s and we will likely see the 100 promised to Pepsi be in use during Q1 2022 to get real feedback from Pepsi on any improvements that need to be made. . It has been 4 years since being announced back in 2017 but in 2022 I think at the end of the year we will have a much better timeline of when the Semi can reach volume production and have a few being tested on the roads. Our next major point for 2022 is

2. The Cybertruck starts production

Another new product that has been repeatedly delayed is the Cybertruck. With the launch of Giga Texas early January we should expect the Cybertruck to reach production in 2022. Elon musk himself has said that 

The Tesla Cybertruck is one of the most innovative products and pieces of technology that Tesla is trying to come out with, that is also one of the very many reasons it is so difficult to make. However the update we should hear on the next earnings call will provide a lot of insight into how many units of the Cybertruck will be produced this year. We’ve seen lots of prototypes recently being driven around, a few notably without side-view mirrors and other features like being able to Crab walk whilst having 4 independent motors and more.

That being said I am hopeful that Tesla will be able to manufacture over 50k units next year assuming Tesla can indeed reach volume production by 2023. A big constraint that you will have to keep an eye out on is the 4680 battery cells which will also have to be ramped up to full production to be utilized in the Cybertruck.

Lets move on to the third point which may surprise you but I am confident in my prediction about it:

3. Tesla Insurance launches in each US state.

Tesla will expand its real-time data car insurance next year and will cover most of the USA by the end of the year.

Using a safety score generated based on the data of your driving behaviour Tesla generates a score between 1 and 99 (99 being very good!). Based on this Tesla can create a very competitive driver insurance and become a cheaper more competitive alternative which in some states insures more than its competitors too. Here is a reply of someone to my tweet about their experience using Tesla insurance;

Tesla insurance uses the data they have on their drivers to provide optimal and competitive coverage, I covered yesterday the fact that Tesla will be expanding to 5 new states in Q1 2022 (2 of which, Ohio and Arizona will get access in January) so its just a matter of time before the USA is completely covered. This is just another revenue stream to add and will increase the recurring revenue generated per vehicle sold as more and more drivers opt for Tesla insurance.

4. The Super Charger Network

On November 1st, as an experiment Tesla opened up its charging stations to third parties in the Netherlands. There are now over 25,000 superchargers worldwide with Tesla looking to grow this number by 30% in 2022. As more and more electric vehicles come on to the market, they will require places to charge and when Tesla opens up to other vehicles it will be another point of revenue for the company. 

5. The $25,000 Tesla launches

The very anticipated $25,000 Tesla has been rumoured to start production in 2023. Tesla seems to be so confident in their full self driving that there are even plans to not include a steering wheel at all in the car! It is definitely possible that in 2022 a prototype is spotted or that Tesla themselves release more information such as a few concepts early next year.

Back in September 2021 Elon Musk told employees that they plan to start production in 2023 so I’m confident we will learn more about this mysterious new vehicle in 2022. My prediction: We see a prototype running around, and it will have a steering wheel. Although bullish on FSD i think the regulatory approval process will be so difficult that it won’t make sense for Tesla not to start producing this vehicle without a steering wheel. Lets move on to the biggest ‘what-if’ in this article, Tesla Autonomous self driving:

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6. Tesla Lvl 4 Autonomy Reached (FSD)

Tesla has improvements for their autonomous software coming out each day as thousands of cars provide real time data. Currently FSD beta version 10.8 is only available to select customers who are achieving high beta scores, this is slowly being rolled out to lower and lower scores as the software improves. Elon musk has notoriously said that full autonomy would be reached by 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021.

Of course this hasn’t happened but with the latest update to the software Elon’s goal of having reached level 4 autonomy by 2022 seems the closest to full self driving we have ever been. However, I don’t think we will reach this due to the legal restraints and immense difficulty but i am confident that the FSD beta will be released to significantly more users during 2022. It is important to note that the FSD beta uses the interior camera to ensure that the driver is still paying attention and i don’t expect that by the end of 2022 that this feature will be removed. Nevertheless FSD will see significant improvements next year as we have seen this year. And it is only a matter of time before it reaches a point where it is so safe that we can remove the steering wheel entirely.

7. Tesla 2022 Stock Price Prediction

Now the moment you’ve all been waiting for, or either the moment you skipped ahead to. I predict that Tesla will close on December 31st 2022 at a price above $1800 per share. That would make Tesla (right now) the 5th largest company by market cap overtaking Amazon at $1.7 Trillion USD. I believe this will happen due to Tesla achieving 1,500,000 vehicle deliveries next year whilst introducing production of the Cybertruck. Tesla 2022 is going to be a wild and exciting ride and I cannot wait to see what happens.

That’s about it for my 2022 forecast, i was tempted to include an overview over this topic  but couldn’t find the time. If you’re curious I think its also worth noting that 2022 will likely see a huge EV incentive program in the BBB bill which could be worth up to $12,500 per vehicle. The BBB also makes room for large investments into the EV charging networks and other sustainable initiatives.

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